[accidentally poignant feedback email]

Hi, I would be interested in hearing what it is that you learned from your friend. As mentioned in the [insert recent podcast].

If you were in need of an interviewer; I'd be happy to correspond but I'd be a terrible interviewer. I'm far too opinionated and a bit overbearing. I'm ok with that but I don't want to impose that on other people in the expectation of anything else.

This was written to you only, but then distributed to others who so found it appropriate to be listed among the set of people who read this or otherwise encountered it's information and decided that it was written to them, but it's actually you.

What is the size of that set? Is that a function of space? Time? My social networks?

5:€ (markovlife.com/hidden)

Night words on thoughts.

The purple micron, I think? In the bedroom. With the md. Or at least I remember thinking, but not those words, or at least not this

Tonight I wrote not unthinkingly, but unfeedbackily. I won't note this night except here. And then you can figure it out once it's scanned and uploaded.

The point is this is about language and reference. What is this referring to ? How many meanings does this have? Each time I make this anew, is it the same if it's also different. Well that's painting this with much broader strokes.

I'm not feeling well.

I have an awful headache and a stuffy nose.

And at times I know what I was saying, but not what I was writing. At other times I know what I'm writing but not what I'm saying. Other times I may know both? I definitely remember more, and am more capable of rendering my language and the thoughts that according to Frege and Dummett are roughly riding upon each other? Or at least there's some path between their seas...

Roosevelt?

Anyway, I forgot where I was going so apparently the fourth can happen as well. Isn't technology great? By letting us see what we've lost, or what we've kept despite the possibility of losing it, we can show the extent to which there is something like a continuous stream of meaning that moves that much further into the realm of pure words falling out of your head diving into the world so perfectly that they don't even make an assuring plop of an event visible to any of your senses.

So far I can get down to Just penprioception but even that can be quite rich. Not even if I will challenge myself to write blind and to write with a brush pen , I'm still scared to write with a blind brush.

Update: I did this during a showing of eternal sunshine of the spotless mind . Wasn't nearly as difficult as I had thought.

Why am I so afraid of my or md's words? Even if I don't always know what they mean or what they refer to or both or neither .

I tried to take a pic of what just happened but it's not easy to do but I just took a photo of what the screen still looks like after I write the word yri which I'm sure will be corrected to something that is not 'yri' Well I'll scan that soon and it'll have to be the last of the trip I havealreadyputonto the sdcard

I couldn't serge spaces here while I was typing and so the words get all lumped together but I try to remember for fear of an autocorrect mistake?

I think I made a joke about this earlier.

in the words of someone I hope to admire some day and want to remember having been someday

'fuck urgency'.

Making the weaker argument the stronger

Making the weaker argument the stronger

on
Anderson, J.R. (1978). Arguments concerning representations for mental imagery. Psychological Review, 85, 249–277.

Here I am taking issue with Anderson’s dismissal of the non-difference between neuro-physiological and behavioral data. If you are reluctant to hear that all data are theory-laden, I suggest a dose of Popper and Kuhn (Feyerabend if you’re feeling racy); and that you don’t read this as you probably won’t like it.

The hidden weakness of neural data

Anderson states that phsyiological data could present two kinds of worries to one wishing to use it to identify imagery vs. propositional representations of mental imagery. The strong one he argues is that nothing like direct evidence has yet been found for images or propositions. He adds

This is not to say that such data are impossible to achieve in principle, only that it is unlikely.

Anderson wrote this article in 1978. Right now is 2013_46_2_2127; a lot of work has been completed since then. According to Anderson’s claim, I will need to scour through the relevant literature to discover whether, indeed, such a demonstration has been found. I’ve not. I won’t. And as an argument I raise what Anderson describes as the weaker argument.

Namely, that non-serious argument is that ‘observations of brain functions have the same problem of interpretation that behavioral data do.’ His argument against himself is as follows

Suppose, not just to be bizarre, that we observed an m × n grid of data encoded on the brain’s surface and that this corresponded to a picture of an object. This observations is a datum that a theory must account for. It would be possible to attribute that datum to some source other than the fact that such acgrid was actually neurally encoded…such a level of skepticism is clearly unaceptable…direct observation always has had a priveleged status as a means of determining the state of an object, even though it must be handled with some caution (remember, eg..g, the stick that appears crooked in water).

What is particularly egregious here is that he almost builds the argument against himself, though he stops a bit short of laying it out extensively or (seemingly) with any genuine belief in his warning of caution. Were the phrenologists and mesmerists of the 19th century using the priveleged status of observation when they probed the heads of their ‘patients’ or waved sticks about a tree? Priestly had the data that convinced others that phlogiston was a substance not worth postulating. He observed the data that ‘disproved’ his theory directly; as directly as is possible given that he produced the data. And yet he still needed to interpret the data and that is where he faltered.

Similarly, it is impossible to say that an array of data could be “encoded on the brain’s surface” without saying something about what “encoded on the brain’s surface” would like like. But then to do so is a theoretical claim about the representations that underly neural structure (if not cognitive structure). That is, under some theories of neural activity (however bizarre), we have been given direct observations that there are images, or propositions, or both! Of course, you will need to tell me what it is that counts as neural activity, but I will just make the move that Anderson did and say that whatever theory you have for explaining your phenomenon is correct, except in that you’ve left out that whatever activity you have gathered is direct evidence for images, propositions or both (unless you’ve haven’t left it out, in which case I think you may have bigger concerns).

My point is not to suggest that there isn’t something called brain activity; or that nothing is “encoded” on the brain’s surface; or even that it is impossible that a m × n grid of data could be encoded on the surface of the brain. My point is that most of the important words in the last sentence are woefully underspecified without the “implicit ground rules” about what were acceptable variations in how information is represented neurally. Or, more accurately, my point is that your intuition about how the representation is to be read off from the brain is by no means obvious.

A final strand of this argument (one I admit I am reluctant to pluck) is that he allows for the doubting of introspective reports. In which case, I wonder how it is that he believes his direct observations are to be made. Did knowledge of the world leap past the phenomenological character of experience that he is dismissing as possibly untrustworthy to some deeper form of knowledge that cannot be so doubted? If he relies instead on more “objective” measures (like lines on a cathode ray tube) the question of how those measures were determined to be relevant of course arises. A theory shaped the creation of whichever particular measures are at our fingertips, and as valid as I’m sure they are, they then would be no better than the interferometer used to demonstrate (by Fizeau’s direct observations of light through an eyepiece after passing through water, lens and reflected off mirrors) that aether drags on light that goes through it.

The Fizeau experiment was valid and today is explained via relativistic velocities. His direct observations, in fact, weren’t taken even by him as direct evidence of the existence of this phenomenon, they required interpretation.

The success of the experiment seems to me to render the… hypothesis necessary, or at least the law…; for although that law being found true may be a very strong proof in favour of the hypothesis of which it is only a consequence, perhaps the [theory] may appear so extraordinary, and… so difficult, to admit, that other proofs … will be necessary before adopting it as an expression of the real facts of the case.

So for those neuroscientists hoping to end this debate on representation, I fear you are stuck with representations of your own, that render you unable to ever make the question obsolete. And whatever objections that are raised based on neural data laced with the traces of your favorite theory, I can only say… there will not and cannot be compelling reasons to accept your ground rules for the acceptable variations in these theories.

Exploring Galapalogos

Exploring Galapalogos

or is Olivia on her way?

Jezebel recently released an article on the most popular names for girls over the years as gathered by the us census
(sidenote: i’m so happy that this data exists).
Article

Lots of people have discussed the aspect of conformity and or how common one’s own name is around this, but I think that not nearly so fascinating as the structure and dynamics of the transmission/infection of names from state to state.

Unfortunately Because of the way that they colored the diagram this doesn’t jump out at you unless you are primed to look for it. Apparently by studying the evolution of ideas etc. I’m in the camp of “primed to look for this”.

The rest of this will proceed with some non-mathematical descriptions of some evolutionary theoretic ideas.
(These ideas are well discussed in a similar non-mathematical way in the following wikipedia entry about the Galapagos Syndrome in Japanese 3G cell phones).

And then I will attempt to apply the theory to the naming data, though admittedly only cursorily.

An high-level evolutionary theoretic primer on Galapagos Syndrome

  1. Semi-isolated populations will be able to have mutations occur in them and prosper in them that are not well represented in the total population of a species.
  2. Larger populations that are well integrated will have fewer shifts.
  3. If there is variation in the population you expect that variation to peek through more readily in smaller, less connected populations because it takes that much more to oust the ruler of a larger kingdom (even if more representatives of dissident factions exist there).
    1. It is useful to note that a new species and a variation on an existing species is not always an easy line to draw. However evolutionary theory tends to speak in terms of hard categories of species, i.e., the propagation of category A is equivalent to the species “A” growing in a population, despite the fact we often observe a good deal of variance between instantiations(individual organisms) of species A. (e.g., see linklist if you want 6 examples of 1 example of individual differences between instantiations of a type)
  4. You would not expect the deviations from the type to be able to survive if they are exquisitely adapted to a single environment so much so that they became their own type.

Calling the Namegame

Now look at the images from that slide show.
He’s a brief description using my brain as a statistical filter (its biased toward large areas with different colors), with the rise of a horse race style description as I get bored of merely listing facts.

  • 1960s: Fall of Mary, Rise of Lisa, Fail of Brenda, Floundering of Michele
  • 1970: obliteration of Lisa. tries to survive as melissa. Angela tries and fails
  • 1970s: Jennifer takes over the entire country for the entire decade almost literally…until 1983 Jennifer wins. Deviations described below
  • 1979: Amanda tries really hard in the South, and dances around for the next decade or so. kinda sneaky, i appreciate its effort e.g., New Mexico(NM) and North Dakota(ND) 1988, New Hampshire(NH) 1989
  • 1980: first sighting of Jessica in Alaska(AK), Maine(ME) and NH
  • 1981: Jessica still hangs around in ND, ME, NH, Rhode Island(RI). AK back to Jennifer
  • 1982: Jessica: Montana(MT), ND, Kentucky(KE), West Virginia(WV), NH, ME, RI
  • 1983: New sighting — “Ashley”! Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana; Jessica: ND, Wyoming(WY), WV, NH, ME
  • 1984: Jennifer loses its stranglehold. Duopoly of Jessica/“Ashley” arise
  • Jessica: more remotish states (e.g., AK,MT,NM,CO,SD,Georgia(GA),WV,VA,ME)
  • 1985: Jennifer topples, Illinois Massachusettes and Deleware are holdouts
    Jessica has arisen!
    “Ashley” has arisen! (they really are equivalent at this point)
    Jessica has gateway states.
    “Ashley” has heartland states + Hawaii(HI)
  • 1986–1989 Jessica, Ashley Duopoly
  • 1989: Rise in Brittany in the south (side note: I wonder how the census dealt with spelling variation[1])
  • 1990: Brittany lingers on, still Jessica Ashley duopoly though.
  • 1991: Ashley takes over, Jessica still around, Brittany limps along, and Sarah emerges(NH)
  • 1992: Jessica and Ashley again, Brittany all but dead (WV), Sarah(NH), Amanda reemerges (RI) so sneaky!
  • 1993: Jessica technically dominates, but Ashley has apparent geographic plurality, Sarah relocates (MA), Samantha seen in ND, Emily arises in the northeast (ME,NH,Vermont,Connecticut)
  • 1994: Jessica pushes back, takes over Ashley territory, Samantha moves to Wisconsin(WI), Taylor appears in ND and LA, Megan in SD, Brittany raises her head in WV, Emily spreads to the midwest (Minnesota(MN), and Iowa) in addition to its NE origins + Pennsylvania (PE)
  • 1995: Emily taking over more ground, Jessica still reigning, Ashley fading, Samantha appears in AK and RI, Brittany holds strong in WV, Taylor moves into more of the south (GA and South Carolina (SC))
  • 1996: Pluralism makes it hard to describe! Emily winning, Ashley finally in AK…Hannah arises (south), Taylor lingers(SC), Brittany fades away Emily in WV, Alexis in LA, Madison in Kansas(KA) and Oklahoma(OK), Samantha in NM SD and New Jersey(NJ)
  • 1997: Hannah takes over south, but for Alexis in LA and Ashley in Florida (FL) Hannah also in AK, MT, CO, SD; Taylor HI, NM & OK; Samantha New York (NY), Madison in Utah (UT)
  • 1998: Alexis spreads to Mississippi(MS) and Arizona(AR) from LA, Samantha to NY and NJ, Ashley’s last stand in NM; Madison in Idaho, WY, UT and KN, HI still holds out on Taylor. Emily still winning
  • 1999: Hannah makes a play for the bigtimes: Ohio (OH), CO, ND, IN, KY, WV, TE, North Carolina (NC), SC, Arkansas (AS),Alabama(AL), LA, NH; Madison in MS, MT, KA,OK; Samantha Nevada(NV) and AR; Taylor still in HI and now WY
  • 2000: (note the graph is miscolored on TE) Its a Hannah Madison Emily free for all. HI shows some Galapagos effect of uniqueness with “Kayla”
  • 2001: Emily still technically winning, but Madison with the geographic plurality (including AK), Ashley resurges in AR Alexis holding strong in NM. HI goes with Taylor
  • 2002: Madison gains more ground, Hannah relegated to SD, Emma appears in MI, WI, NH, Nebraska (NE). Kayla in HI again. Alexis still in NM.
  • 2003: Emma has taken over the North + Hawaii. Madison left to the South East and Emily to the larger states and South West and some of the North East. Hannah jumps to AK, Alexis lives on in NM.
  • 2004: Madison Emma Emily free-for-all. Emma has both HI and AK. Ashley reappears in NE. Alexis shifts to Alyssa in NM. Emily technically wins (populous states)
  • 2005: Madison loses ground fortified around the East coast of Ohio river and the Mississippi river once they merge + CO DE and AK. Alyssa holds strong. Ava seen in MN. Olivia sighting in CT & RI, rest are Emma and Emily. Emily wins (populous states)
  • 2006: Isabella appears NM, CO, HI, FL, NJ, CT, RI; Ava sweeps across the great lakes MN,WI, MI, PA, + ND & MA. Mia pops up in AR. Emma and Emily do battle, Madison gets a strong foothold in the south East up to Ohio River. Emily Still wins (populous states)
  • 2007: This year is a hot mess. First Emily wins; carries 3 states California (CA), Texas (TX), NV. Olivia shows up again in UT VT and Washington (WA) Isabella includes AK and AR, IL, NY, + those from before(I’m honestly surprised it didn’t win this year). Emma makes an incursion into the Madison stronghold TE & AL. Ava spreads to OH, IO, SD, NH, DE plus where it was before, lost ND to Emma. Madison jumps to MT & ID, and in the process loses a phoneme gains in math with Addison taking over NE and KA. Sophia appears in HI, RI. I remind you Emily won with 3 states.
  • 2008: Olivia makes a stand in the northwest. picking up OR, ID, UT to go with WA as well as MI and IL; Emily still in NV and TX, loses main title. CA goes to Isabella. Emma continues to migrate into the Madison territory, takes the title. Madison still exists in patches. Ava Still going strong on the great lakes + MA + NE + DE; HI ever the wildcard goes with Chloe. Emma wins with a plurality
  • 2009: Isabella sweeps! new: TX, OK, WY, NV, WA, AK, IL, OH, WV, VA, PA, DE, HI. Olivia takes over most other Ava states (new: ND, MN,WI, MI, VT, MA). Addison appears again(NE). Ava remains in IO spreads to LA. Rest split north to Emma, south to Madison. 2009 goes to Isabella.
  • 2010: Sophia reappears in North, AK, WA OR, ND, SD, WI, MI NH, VT, Maryland (MD), DE. Ava adds MN back to IO and LA. Olivia curtailed to ID, UT, NE,VA. Emma holds out in MT, AL, Arkansas(AS),NC,Indiana(IN), ME. Madison holds onto MS & SC. Rest goes to Isabella. 2010 goes to Isabella
  • 2011: Sophia and Emma carve up Isabella! Isabella holds onto FL and WV. Madison holds onto MS and SC. Ava in SD & LA. Sophia gains West and most coastal areas (all of West coast, WI IL for great lakes, Northeast area from MD up minus ME and NH), Olivia has AK, UT, CO, MN,MI. Emma has the rest. Sophia wins!
  • 2012: Emma topples much of the competition, but Sophia remains triumphant holds onto West Coast (CA, WA,OR) + larger states(TX,IL,OH,NY), Some of the South west (AR, NM), some of the East Coast RI, NJ, MD, DE, VA. Isabella grasps onto FL. Ava stirs in NH. Olivia basks in ID. Everything else is Emma’s Sophia wins.

Gaming the game with evolutionary theory

There are some interesting trends that deserve investigating.

Nation/time wide:

  1. We are more fractioned, name wise. We’ve seen nothing like the ubiquity of Jennifer in the 70s since, well Jennifer in the 70s.
  2. Some names hold out for a long time staying in the same state for a long time (e.g., Madison) or changing states frequently and appearing again and again even after breaks of not being present (e.g., Amanda, Hannah, Ava, Ashley)
  3. In some cases names arrive with little warning (Emma, Sophia), or with completely no warning (Jennifer).
  4. Large population states sway the “winner” a lot. See 2007, Emily.

State wise

Hawaii is weird: lots of unique names app are and go no where. New Mexico is similarly weird. (see evo point 4). However they do differ.
However, Hawaii compared to New Mexico is a much better indicator as to where a name will go. This may be because it is more isolated and the fact that New Mexico has such names while being close to other states suggests that the uniqueness of the name climate helped spawn and constrain both Alexis and Alyssa. On the other hand Hawaii had Isabella and Sophia 3 years early. But also held onto Taylor for a while while no other movement was happening. Kayla and Chloe are yet to be observed elsewhere.

Alaska on the other hand (with Maine and New Hampshire) successfully housed Jessica as Jennifer’s reign continued, though Maine was the most staunch of those supporters.
Maine though has a tendency to hold out for a while and then jump ship shortly after the name Maine held became too popular.

And in truth even as I try to make these generalizations, none of them seem to hold water beyond merely being post hoc analyses. Except for the general trends. Smaller states seem to undergo more variation(see evo point 1). Large states(CA, NY,TX,FL) with little isolation (most are large populous states with many ports), change slowly and rarely(see evo point 2). Look to smaller states to observe the endemic names that are just waiting to spring up(see evo point 3).

This is in line with some of the evolutionary theory regarding small isolated populations and large integrated populations. However, as I had originally put it small and isolated were treated as equivalent, but obviously that need not be the case. The question is where one draws the line around a population that is small but well integrated — why is it not part of the larger population together.

Soo…..what?

Of course all of this is just my qualitative, eye-balling of these data, to be able to do this analysis justice I’d need at least the following things (aside from more quantitative data more generally).

A point on names and spelling

There are many ways of spelling Brittany [1], and many of these names. I’m curious how the census decides to collapse alternate spellings. Those would be more akin to mutations of the sort that could give rise to the Madison → Addison shift.(see evo point 3.1) Might some names persist better because there are fewer variations on the spelling? Or would that make them persist worse? What does it mean for a name to persist if it only persists as a wide set of variants?

A point on distributions and point-estimators

So far I only analyzed the yearly point estimator. However, knowing what we do know about how names work, my guess is that in many cases (surely not all) we could have done a better job predicting the rise and spread of names if we knew not just the top name, but rather the actual distribution of names, or even just the top 10 names. I’m sure that graph would be horribly unwieldy though.

A concluding whimsical prediction

I could very well be wrong about this, but…

For all those expecting (or soon to be expecting) parents out there…
Is it Ava or Olivia who is on her way?


  1. A regularly express Br(i|y)(t|tt)(e|a|i|y)?(n|nn)(e|a)?(y|i). That may be too permissive (e.g., it allows Brytynnai) but it gets the idea across.  ↩

`Undiscovering Humanity: A Humanish Skull`

Kicking the legs out from under a too old dogma

UNdiscovery, variation is not just across species! Turns out we did not get lucky and on the first go find skulls that fully and accurately described the complete course of speciation events in human beings!

As excavations at Dmanisi continue, researchers expect to find more fossils — and perhaps more conclusive proof that normal variation within a single Homo species has been misinterpreted as species diversity. It might be time to rewrite the evolutionary history books.

ᔥ from http://bit.ly/UNdiscovery

Given the sparsity of the samples, this is in no way surprising to me. I could never believe that we were basing so much on so little data anyway, especially given the likely theoretical concerns.

At any point in time, if evolution is to occur there will need to be some amount of variation in the population, if the fossil record is completely randomly sampled (ignore the ambiguity there...) we would expect not just to have individual specimens from massively different species, but we would see a good amount of within generation variation.

This is more generally related to the problem of treating animal species as if they are individual prototypes (or even more ambiguously, archetypes) as opposed to a distribution that has natural variation between individuals of the species.

And all these critiques don't even address the issues having to do with the platonic assumptions that go into the notion of a 'species' such that it could have an 'archetype' anyway.

Here's a secret...species don't evolve, indeed, they don't even exist. individuals evolve and species are useful conceptual boxes that we put around populations of those individuals in saying that they're effectively the same. However if we are going to have a picture of evolution that reflects the processes that we can actually expect to observe then we need to move away from this 'ideal instance of a species' idea. Identifying species is hard and mistake prone, so lets let our categories rest and use them as needed rather than declaring once and for all we know that this is a representative of one species or that is a representative of another species.

Variety is not just the spice of life, it is life.

Evolution is a gradient process, and, yes, sometimes a saltatory one, and both types of change need variation and that variation will need to be smooth enough that we can even recognize it as variation. But this is just a more rigorous example of us having missed the forest for the trees...or more so the tree...or more so maybe a branch or two. If you look hard enough at anything sufficiently complex your ability to find dimensions you could use to say that they were different kinds of things...but why be more precise than your data warrant unless you need to...and it doesn't seem like we needed to here.

Acknowledgements

A good friend me the idea of "humanish". pure brilliance.